Belarus’s defense minister extended military exercises with Russian forces that were otherwise set to end Sunday, and announced a joint task force to “fight back if necessary.” Russian and Belarusian military leaders will “continue checking” joint force readiness, the defense minister, Viktor Khrenin, said, citing the “increase in military activity” near the Belarusian border and “the aggravation of the situation” in eastern Ukraine.
The announcement that Russian forces would not return to base as planned contradicted the country’s previous assertion that not a single Russian troop or piece of equipment would remain after the drill. Before the exercise began 10 days ago, Western military analysts warned that it could be cover for an attack force to invade Ukraine from the north and potentially encircle the capital Kyiv.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky forcefully demanded stronger actions from world leaders on Saturday as the threat of full-scale invasion intensified amid increased shelling in the eastern separatist regions of his country. Zelensky also called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet him and seek a diplomatic resolution to the crisis. U.S. officials have repeatedly warned that Russia could stage an attack from Kyiv’s forces on the separatist-held territories to justify Moscow’s invasion. State Department spokesman Ned Price expressed skepticism about Russian reports of a car bomb in a separatist-controlled region in eastern Ukraine.
Here’s what to know
- Western diplomats made a last-ditch push for a peaceful resolution to tensions between Russia and Ukraine at the Munich Security Conference, emphasizing that diplomacy remained an option up until the possible moment when Moscow launches an attack.
- British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the BBC Sunday that the United Kingdom and the United States could take steps to prevent Russian companies from trading in British pounds and U.S. dollars if Putin invades Ukraine. Zelensky earlier said that possible Western sanctions against Russia should be made public now to deter Moscow.
- Putin oversaw a major military exercise of Russia’s nuclear forces, involving the launch of hypersonic missiles. The exercises are taking place as the United States asserts that Russia probably has massed as many as 190,000 troops in and around Ukraine, or nearly double the 100,000 estimated in late January.
UNDERSTANDING THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS
Macron calls Putin, then Zelensky, to push for meeting on cease-fire
With Western officials warning that Russia could launch an attack on Ukraine at any moment, French President Emmanuel Macron made another attempt at diplomacy Sunday, phoning both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Macron’s conversation with Putin lasted 90 minutes, according to Kremlin pool reporters.
Macron’s office said the two agreed to work on facilitating a meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group — which includes Ukraine, Russia and the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe — to be held in the next few hours with the aim of agreeing to a cease-fire on the line of contact between Ukrainian government forces and Russia-backed separatists.
But the Kremlin’s readout of their discussion didn’t mention a possible Trilateral Contact Group meeting. Its statement said that “taking into account the acuteness of the current state of affairs, the presidents considered it expedient to intensify the search for solutions through diplomatic means.”
Russia’s foreign ministry said in a statement that everything Putin and Macron talked about was in the Kremlin readout and anything else is “interpretations.”
Zelensky said on Twitter that Ukraine stands “for intensifying the peace process. We support the immediate convening of the [Trilateral Contact Group] and the immediate introduction of a regime of silence.”
The Ukrainian military said Saturday that there’s been a “tenfold” increase in shelling from the separatists’ side of the demarcation line since Thursday. Moscow and the separatists have claimed that Ukraine is firing on their positions, which is denied by Ukrainian officials.
Putin may not stop at Ukraine, as Britain’s foreign secretary warns: ‘Which country will it be next?’
Russian President Vladimir Putin “will not stop at Ukraine,” British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said, warning that neighboring countries could be targeted if the international community fails to “stand up” to what she called “Russian aggression.”
“It could be Ukraine next week, but then which country will it be next?” Truss said in an interview with Britain’s Mail on Sunday as she called on Britain and its allies to avert a global crisis.
Truss pointed to Putin’s ambitions to “create the Greater Russia,” saying that she believes “he wants to go back to the situation as it was before where Russia had control over huge swaths of Eastern Europe.” ” … He’s been very clear — his ambition doesn’t just lead to him taking control of Ukraine, he wants to turn the clock back to the mid-1990s or even before then.” Truss cited the Baltic states and the western Balkans as being at risk.
Finnish president Niinisto, who has maintained ties with Putin: Russia taking ‘two steps forward, one back’
Finnish President Sauli Niinisto, who has maintained closer ties with Putin than most Western leaders, said he believes there are still three possible outcomes to the situation between Russia and Ukraine, with a peaceful resolution being the alternative that is furthest away.
“The second option is that we will see a full-scale war,” Niinisto said on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. “And the third one, which is as bad, is that we see this kind of … two steps forward, one back, that is increasing tensions all the time.”
That third scenario is the one Niinisto believes is the most likely in the near future. Niinisto told the New York Times earlier this month that he had noticed a change in Putin’s “state of mind” and “decisiveness” with regard to Ukraine, but said that Putin acts in ways that are difficult to predict — perhaps intentionally to sow confusion.
Nevertheless, Niinisto said Sunday he does not fear Russian aggression in Finland, despite the two countries sharing an 830-mile-long border, partly because of geography and because Finland has been a stable democracy for more than a century. But Russia will be more dangerous if it invades Ukraine successfully, he added.
“I think that we are actually almost in a colder situation than we were during that traditional Cold War,” Niinisto said, noting that there were agreements then between the United States and the Soviet Union limiting arms. “Now, we do not have actually anything, no agreements anymore. So this makes the situation, in my opinion, much more vulnerable.”
Blinken: Biden prepared to engage with Putin ‘at any time, in any format’ to prevent war
Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday said President Biden is prepared to engage with Russian President Vladimir Putin “at any time, in any format, if that can help prevent a war,” despite the increased threat of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
“We believe President Putin has made the decision [to invade Ukraine],” Blinken said on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. “But until the tanks are actually rolling and the planes are flying, we will use every opportunity and every minute we have to see if diplomacy can still dissuade President Putin from carrying this forward.”
“We believe Pres. Putin has made the decision, but until the tanks are actually rolling… we will use every opportunity and every minute we have to see if diplomacy can still dissuade” a Russian invasion, says Secy. of State Antony Blinken on Ukraine-Russia tensions. #CNNSOTU pic.twitter.com/FvKcdtlK3z
— State of the Union (@CNNSotu) February 20, 2022
Like Blinken, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Sunday that the Biden administration has forecast crippling sanctions as a deterrent on Putin, while holding them back so far because an invasion has not begun.
“If you pull the trigger on that deterrent, well, then it doesn’t exist anymore as a deterrent,” Kirby said on “Fox News Sunday.”
“[Putin] has not conducted another invasion in Ukraine yet, and we still think there is time to prevent that,” Kirby added. “It’s supposed to be a deterrent. If you punish somebody for something they haven’t done yet, then they may as well just go ahead and do it. So, we’re holding that in abeyance and we’re hoping that can affect the calculus of Mr. Putin.”
Ukraine invasion could prompt U.K., U.S. to block Russian access to pounds, dollars, British PM warns
The United Kingdom and the United States could take steps to prevent Russian companies from trading in British pounds and U.S. dollars if Russian President Vladimir Putin invades Ukraine, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Sunday.
“We are even, with our American friends, going to stop them trading in pounds and dollars,” Johnson said in an interview with the BBC, adding that the move “will hit very, very hard.”
London-listed Russian firms are likely to be on the list of establishments targeted by possible sanctions, the Guardian reported, noting that companies with U.K.-traded shares paid Russia’s government an estimated 39 billion pounds ($53 billion) in taxes in 2020.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called on world leaders to stand up to Russia amid the threat of an imminent invasion, asking that a list of sanctions be made public as a warning to Russia — before any action is taken against Ukraine.
“We don’t need your sanctions after the bombardment will happen and after our country will be fired at, or after we will have no borders, or after we will have no economy … why would we need those sanctions then?” Zelensky told CNN in an interview Saturday.
Vice President Harris also vowed tough action to tighten financial pressure as she spoke at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend. “Let me be clear, I can say with absolute certainty: If Russia further invades Ukraine, the United States, together with our allies and partners, will impose significant and unprecedented economic costs,” she said.
Why some observers think Sunday will be the day Russia acts against Ukraine
Analysts looking at Russia’s menacing buildup of troops on Ukraine’s borders have long circled Feb. 20 as a day to watch for potential action. Sunday marks the confluence of several events and milestones that some think could — amid the feverish guessing game surrounding the standoff — hold deeper meaning. Here are some of the things happening:
- Joint military exercises with Russian and Belarusian forces conclude. The combined war games are the largest ever between the two allies and looked to many military observers more like the staging for an invasion than typical training maneuvers. Russia has said it would bring significant numbers of troops and equipment back from Belarus when the exercises were complete. The satellites will be watching closely to see to see if that happens.
- Kyiv residents will hold a number of public events to mark the eighth anniversary of the bloodiest day of their Maidan Revolution. On Feb. 20, 2014, riot police opened fire on protesters near Kyiv’s Maidan Square, a key site in the capital city since the country’s independence movement in 1990. About 50 people were killed, triggering events that toppled Ukraine’s pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, and paving way for a pro-Western coalition government. Ukrainians call their uprising “The Revolution of Dignity” and view it as a victory over Yanukovych’s Moscow-aligned, corruption-riddled regime. But Putin has characterized it as a coup d’etat engineered by the West.
- The Beijing Olympics draw to a close. Speculation has been rampant that Russia would hold off on launching a major military escalation in Ukraine during the Games as a courtesy to its increasingly close ally China. The thinking goes, according to some, that Russian President Vladimir Putin wouldn’t want to distract from the Games staged by Chinese President Xi Jinping, especially after the two literally embraced during the Olympics’ Opening Ceremonies on Feb. 4.
- The Munich Security Conference wraps up in Germany. The “Davos of Defense” is the biggest annual gathering of world leaders and military chiefs of the year and has been a hallmark of European security cooperation for almost 60 years. Putin, who used the event to rail against NATO expansion in 2007, boycotted this year’s meeting even as Russia’s looming threats to Ukraine dominated the agenda.
Harris responds to Zelensky’s criticism about silence on sanctions
Vice President Harris on Sunday expressed support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s critical address at the Munich Security Conference.
Harris reiterated President Biden’s assessment that Russian President Vladimir Putin has made the decision to launch a military attack on Ukraine.
Asked to respond to Zelensky’s grievance that Washington has yet to announce the sanctions that Moscow will face if Putin invades Ukraine in the coming days, Harris said that “the purpose of the sanctions has always been and continues to be deterrence.”
“These are some of the greatest sanctions, if not the strongest, that we’ve ever issued,” Harris said, speaking to reporters at the conference, according to pool reports. “It is directed at institutions, in particular financial institutions, and individuals. And it will exact absolute harm for the Russian economy and their government.”
A reporter then followed up: If Putin has made up his mind as U.S. officials have assessed, is the sanctions threat still a deterrent?
“Absolutely,” Harris said, “especially because we still sincerely hope there is a diplomatic path out of this moment.”
Zelensky told the conference on Saturday that Ukraine would “protect our country with or without the support of our partners.”
Harris said she “appreciates and admires” Zelensky and “his desire to join NATO.”
“Let us recognize the position he’s in right now: His country is virtually surrounded by Russian troops,” Harris said. “He came here to make a very clear point that he does not stand alone. In fact, I told him in our meeting: ‘The United States stands with you.’ ”
Russia is ‘last country’ to speak of war, Kremlin says, as reports say its forces moving closer to Ukraine
MOSCOW — Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Sunday that Russia was the “last country” to speak of war, after United States and NATO allies warned Moscow of the devastating consequences of invading Ukraine.
Peskov’s comments on Russian state television come amid rising alarm that Russian forces could invade in coming days. Military analysts noted Russian equipment moving closer to Ukraine, and video surfaced of tanks moving on roads close to Ukrainian borders.
Peskov called on the United States and NATO to see reason and ask themselves why Russia would attack anyone, adding that Russia was “the last country in Europe that wishes to say the word war.”
Western leaders have warned that Russia appears to be preparing the ground by manufacturing a staged pretext to invade, based on Moscow’s claims that Ukraine forces have launched a major attack on Moscow-backed separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, committing “genocide” and “crimes against humanity.”
No evidence has been provided, and Ukraine denies the attacks. Peskov said the West was fueling hysteria with claims of a Russian plan to attack Ukraine, saying Western predictions that an invasion would happen on certain dates deepened tensions between Russia and NATO.
He also took aim at Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, saying Russian President Vladimir Putin had every reason to believe the Kyiv leader would not implement a stalled 2015 agreement to bring peace to eastern Ukraine. Kyiv has called for revisions to the deal, arguing it would undermine sovereignty by giving Moscow-backed separatists autonomy and a veto over Ukraine’s pro-Western stance.
Russian media claims 2 civilians killed during sabotage attempt by Ukraine amid ‘false flag’ fears
KYIV, Ukraine — Russian state media on Sunday amplified a claim from Russian-backed separatist leaders that two civilians were killed by Ukrainian soldiers during a raid into the breakaway Luhansk region.
There was no evidence to corroborate the report. Ukrainian and U.S. officials have warned that Russia could stage attacks in the separatist territories to justify a Russian military invasion. State media’s push of the story follows a trend from the past three days in which Kremlin propaganda outlets are portraying Ukraine as the aggressor.
Ukrainian officials have denied separatist claims that they plan to launch an offensive on the separatist territories. Kyiv’s government troops are under orders not to open fire.
The Russian state-run Tass news service said two people lost their lives and five houses were destroyed near the village of Pionerskoye during an incursion by Ukrainian forces Saturday. The self-styled Luhansk People’s Republic said the Ukrainians crossed the Donets River and tried to storm separatist position but were repelled by armed fighters.
Separatist leaders have also in recent days blamed Ukraine for sabotaging gas pipelines and setting off a car bomb in the rebel-held city of Donetsk. Ukrainian officials have consistently denied they carried out the alleged attacks.
Russian President Vladimir Putin had said a “genocide” is underway in Russian-controlled areas.
Ukraine accuses Russian-backed forces of 136 violations of peace agreement
By David L. Stern7:11 a.m.
LVIV, Ukraine — Ukraine’s military accused Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine of violating a peace agreement that bans heavy weapons from areas near the front line.
In a statement posted on social media, Ukraine’s Joint Forces Operation — the official name for government forces fighting in the country’s east — said “134 pieces of armament and materiel” had been recorded by Russian-backed actors in Ukraine breakaway states “in violation of the Minsk Agreements.” The statement said the weapons included howitzers, antiaircraft missile systems and tanks.
The Ukrainian military said in a separate statement that over the past day, “136 violations were recorded by the armed formations of the Russian Federation, 116 of which involved the use of weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements.”
The Minsk agreements were signed in 2014 and 2015, and set out steps to be taken to de-escalate and reach a final peace deal to end the war in eastern Ukraine.
Russian officials maintain they are not involved in the conflict and only serve as mediators between Kyiv and the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, who control breakaway states of Ukraine. However, Ukrainian and western officials, and independent experts, say Moscow directs the separatists and supplies them with troops and arms.
“Recorded violations of the Russian Federation Armed Forces demonstrate carrying out of the intense combat training with the aim to create conditions for further escalation of situation on the confrontation line,” the statement by the Ukrainian armed forces said.
Russian forces stay in Belarus, fueling Ukraine invasion fears
MOSCOW — Belarus’s defense minister extended military exercises with Russian forces that were otherwise set to end Sunday, and announced a joint task force to “fight back if necessary.”
Russian and Belarusian military leaders will “continue checking” joint force readiness, the defense minister, Viktor Khrenin, said, citing the “increase in military activity” near the Belarusian border and “the aggravation of the situation” in eastern Ukraine.
The announcement that Russian forces would not return to base as planned contradicted the country’s previous assertion that not a single Russian troop or piece of equipment would remain after the drill. Before the exercise began 10 days ago, Western military analysts warned that it could be cover for an attack force to invade Ukraine from the north and potentially encircle the capital Kyiv.
Khrenin said the focus of the continued checks would be the same as the recently completed exercise: “to ensure an adequate response and de-escalation of military preparations of ill-wishers near our common borders.”
Just four days ago, Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei told The Washington Post: “Not a single (Russian) serviceman, not a single piece of military equipment will remain in Belarus after these exercises.”
Even before the exercise began 10 days ago, Western military analysts warned that it could be cover for an attack force to invade Ukraine from the north and potentially encircle its capital, Kyiv.
According to NATO, there are some 30,000 Russian forces in Belarus as well as substantial military hardware including S-400 missiles, positioned in the south of the country. The first hint that Russian forces might not leave after the exercise came Saturday, when Belarusian general Alexander Volfovich told journalists that all the tasks of the exercise had been achieved but that “the exercise may continue. When and for how long will be decided by the head of the inspection.”
Khrenin said that neighboring states were “pumped up” with Western weapons and that Europe was purposely pushing toward war.
Video: For civilians in eastern Ukraine, war is already at their doorstep
After years of peace, villagers in Ukraine’s Donbas region are enduring a sharp increase in shelling from separatists and fear that a Russian invasion could be next. The escalation began in the village of Stanytsia Luhanska on Feb. 17, when artillery hit a local kindergarten.
1 million people in eastern Ukraine hit by water disruptions, Red Cross says
Water services to more than 1 million people have been disrupted by the escalating hostilities in eastern Ukraine, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said Saturday as it appealed to all sides to “critical civilian infrastructure.”
In a statement, the organization said it was “very concerned” about the situation in eastern Ukraine and that at least two major water pumping stations had been “rendered inoperable” by the fighting. Both stations are in the Donetsk region and serve residents on either side of the line of contact, the group said. Donetsk is a Russian-backed breakaway state in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.
The disruption would likely impact “key essential services,” including hospitals, where operations could come to a complete stop, the organization warned. The committee noted that urgent repairs were needed but would take time to complete.
Florence Gillette, the ICRC’s head of delegation in Ukraine said that “civilian infrastructure providing essential services, and civilian personnel who operate, maintain and repair that infrastructure are protected under International Humanitarian Law.”
The organization said it would be working closely with the water company to attempt to restore supplies and that it would also consider emergency solutions, such as using water tankers to provide water to affected communities.
Over the past eight years, communities on either side of the line have regularly been impacted by disruptions to water, gas and power for days or even weeks, according to the ICRC.
British PM Johnson says evidence suggests Russia is planning biggest European war since WWII
Intelligence reports indicate that Russia is planning for a war unlike any experienced on the European continent since the end of World War II, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on the sidelines of a security conference in Munich.
“I’m afraid to say that the plan we’re seeing is for something that could be really the biggest war in Europe since 1945 just in terms of sheer scale,” Boris Johnson told the British Broadcasting Corp. in an interview that aired Sunday.
“You’re looking at not just an invasion through the east, through the Donbas, but according to the intelligence that we’re seeing, coming down from the north, down from Belarus and actually encircling Kyiv itself,” he said, adding: “I think people need to understand the sheer cost in human life that could entail.”
The remarks come as the United States is sounding its most dire warnings yet about the likelihood of a resumed Russian invasion of Ukraine. Johnson said President Biden had briefed him and other officials Saturday night.
The United States asserts that Russia has massed as many as 190,000 troops in and around Ukraine, or nearly double the 100,000 estimated in late January. President Biden warned Friday that Russia could launch a military attack on Ukraine “in the coming days.”
U.K. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss sounded similar warnings to the United States in Munich on Saturday, asserting that Ukraine’s “worst-case scenario” — a Russian invasion — “could happen as early as next week.”
